Dynasty Dark Horses (Players taken Rd 3 or later in the 2017 NFL Draft)
@fantasyGOAT247
The most coveted prize of every fantasy draft is uncovering a gem in the later rounds (see Howard, Jordan) that carries you to a championship. Players can come out of nowhere due to any number of variables including unsettled depth chart, starter injury, new coaching staff/scheme change. In this article, I am going to identify my top 5 DARK HORSE candidates and the percent chance that they hit in 2017.
1. Kareem Hunt – In Andy Reid I Trust. Hunt possesses a great combination of vision and balance and can be the duel threat that Reid looks for in his bell cow RB.
“The vision and the balance that has, I think he’s one of the most instinctive players in this entire draft class. I think this guy is going to be an outstanding pro.” — Daniel Jeremiah
Consider that Ware underperformed while receiving only 52% of the teams carries last year and I don’t foresee that number increasing in 2017. Hunt will begin the season in a timeshare with Spencer Ware but should easily distance himself by midseason and receive the lion’s share of carries by the fantasy playoffs. The Kansas City Star has already reported that Hunt has “already impressed with his short-area burst and balance.”
RB2 upside 75% Hit Rate
2. Joe Williams – By now I’m sure you’ve heard how Kyle Shanahan was pounding the table for Joe Williams on draft Saturday even though John Lynch had removed him from their board (off field concerns). Williams possesses the size (5’11” – 210) / speed (4.41 40 Yd. Dash) combination that I look for in an upside RB. He also has as clear a path to early playing time as any RB outside of the top 4 drafted with the 49ers apparently being sour on Carlos Hyde. If he can clean up the fumbles he will quickly assume the Tevin Coleman role in Shanahan’s system with the chance for even more. For context purposes that translates into roughly 150 touches and considering Williams per touch production at Utah (albeit extremely limited in the passing game) a rookie season of 800 yards and 5 touchdowns is in the cards.
RB3 upside 50% Hit Rate
3. Cooper Kupp – While I do not view Kupp as a special prospect I am extremely fond of his landing spot and scheme fit.
“He’s an advanced route-runner. I love his hands and his edge. Very average speed. His three-cone was one of the best of the combine, meaning he can get in and out of breaks. Against two Pac-12 teams, he caught the ball 27 times with six touchdowns, so don’t give the ‘level of competition’ with Kupp.” — Mike Mayock
I can see Kupp playing the Jamison Crowder / Pierre Garcon safety blanket role in Sean McVay’s system (they accounted for 35% of the team’s total target share). The RAMS WR room is bereft with talent and Kupp will see playing time early due to his draft pedigree and advance route running ability. Throw in the fact that he and Jared Goff are living together this off season and share the same agent and were talking about a connection that match.com couldn’t outdo. 75+ catches aren’t out of the question here!
WR3 upside. 35% Hit Rate
4. Elijah McGuire – Take a second and think about how many pieces the Jets have on offense that clearly project as future assets. Matt Forte is 31 and DONE. Bilal Powell (while I am a truther) has never been given the opportunity and will not be kept around through the rebuild.
McGuire is one of the better receiving RBs in this class and should fit a sub package role within John Morton’s offense. He also brings value as a punt returner. — Mark Dulgerian
The Jets targeted their RB in 21% of the team’s targets in 2016 which will likely increase in 2017 with new OC John Morton bringing the Saints offensive philosophy with him (Saints targeting their RB on 24% of pass plays in what was considered a down year). McGuire should be given every chance to make an immediate AND long-term fantasy impact by filling the 3rd down or COP back role in their offense and his PPR upside in this playing from behind offense is well worth the late round price tag.
RB4 upside 15% Hit Rate
5. Jordan Leggett – I know, I know two Jets on the Dark Horse list is a lot to digest but hear me out.
New OC John Morton is coming from a Saints team that loved featuring their tight ends in the passing game. Leggett is one of the better run-and-catch receiving TE’s in this class. The tight end position has essentially been non-existent in recent Jets’ offenses so this is a refreshing pick if nothing else. — Mark Dulgerian
By now we all know the narrative that Drew Brees made multiple TE’s relevant in New Orleans and while the Jets don’t have a Drew Brees, or even of Chase Daniels for that matter, on their roster the scheme is going to funnel targets to the TE. Couple that with the fact that Josh McCown; for the __ weeks that he’s healthy enough to play this season; targets the TE position with regularity (Gary Barnidge averaged 80yd & .75TD / game in the 8 games that McCown started in 2015) especially when pass catching options are limited like they were in CLE and are in NYJ. This pick is more scheme then player and lack of TE options for the Jets.
TE2 upside 5% Hit Rate
Other in consideration: ArDarius Stewart WR – NYJ, Noah Brown WR – DAL, Aaron Jones RB – GB, Elijah Hood RB – OAK
References:
http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/wsh/washington-redskins
http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/atl
http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/kc
http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/schedule/_/name/cle/year/2015
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/jordan-leggett?id=2557885
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/elijah-mcguire?id=2557934b
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/cooper-kupp?id=2557898
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/joe-williams-7.html
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